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Joe Wegman ’09,
a meteorology major from Chantilly, Va., is one
of eight SUNY Oswego students helping improve
how lake-effect storms are forecast under a $10,000
grant. Students compare data from actual lake-snow
events with how the weather researching and forecasting
modeling system predicted the storms would behave. |
A $10,000 grant is paying SUNY Oswego meteorology students
to help the National Weather Service better forecast
and understand lake-effect snowstorms.
Given the unpredictable nature of lake-effect storms
and the crippling effect they can have on Upstate New
York communities, this work is of great interest in
the professional field and an outstanding educational
opportunity, said SUNY Oswego Professor Robert Ballentine,
the lead project investigator.
Working with the Buffalo office of the National Weather
Service, students study different configurations of
the weather researching and forecasting modeling system
— which, while state-of-the-art and created by
experts, still needs refinement in the tricky task of
predicting where and when the most intense lake-effect
snow events will happen.
"We're trying to figure out whether and why the
model is making errors along the band," Ballentine
explained. "This is an optimization attempt to
take what the National Weather Service is doing now
and use it as a control."
The grant comes from the University Corporation for
Atmospheric Research, a nonprofit consortium of North
American colleges, under the Cooperative Program for
Operational Meteorology, Education and Training.
Ballentine said that virtually all of the funding goes
to stipends for eight students who compare the data
from an actual storm with what the forecasting system
predicted the weather pattern would do.
"Since it's a very new model, we're trying to determine
what kinds of biases it may have," said Joe
Wegman ’09, a meteorology major from Chantilly,
Va., who came to Oswego because of the strong storms
and the college meteorology program. Forecasting systems
tend to have biases in at least one factor, such as
temperature or direction, he noted.
By plotting and comparing observed storm data with what
meteorologists predicted, students will help forecasters
understand what the biases of the model are and correct
for them, thus making future forecasts more reliable,
Wegman explained.
Students are studying large weather events, including
the recent fall storm in the Buffalo area, that feature
bands coming off Lake Ontario or Lake Erie.
Co-project investigators include Al Stamm, Steven Skubis
and Scott Steiger ’99 of the meteorology faculty.
Researchers also hope to figure out how much certain
factors — such as wind speed, moisture, temperature
and the diurnal (time of day) cycle — influence
the development of lake-effect storms.
Ballentine said the study looks at other issues, such
as how the hilly terrain east of Lake Ontario contributes
to the severity of storms in that area.
"Part of the purpose of this is to get students
interested in research, learning about types of technology
and the types of work meteorologists do," Ballentine
said.
Wegman confirmed that his participation has augmented
both his enthusiasm and his knowledge of lake-effect
events.
"Since I'm not from around here, I never realized
that lake-effect storms could be so fickle," Wegman
said. "Seeing what happens has greatly enhanced
my understanding of how lake-effect storms work and
how they behave." |
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