CalendarFailure. It’s a bad thing, right?
We . . . know that, on average, successful people have had many more failures than unsuccessful people. This seems counterintuitive. How could successful people have failed more often than everyone else? Failure is unavoidable and sometimes happens randomly. It’s what you do after the failure that is important. Successful people have a stick-to-it-iveness. They don’t quit. From the president of FedEx to the novelist Jerzy Kosinsky, from van Gogh to Bill Clinton to Fleetwood Mac, successful people have had many, many failures, but they learn from them and keep going.
From “This Is Your Brain on Music,” by Daniel J. Levitin.
For more on the same topic: Here’s a link.
Advice to freshmen by Ben Stein (he played the history “teacher” in Ferris Buehler’s Day Off). Here’s another - more recent - piece by Mr. Stein. Finally: Check out this graph from a recent semester. Tables from the Triola text. Reverse Z-table – start with percent, get Z score. Templates for the Normal Distribution. December 5 Midterm 3. Here’s the Formula Sheet. Midterm 3 coverage (which dates back through November 3): Confidence interval for a proportion (Section 7-2, Exercise Sets) Sample size determination Properties of this CI Impact of changing the sample size Impact of charning the confidence Impact of changing the prevalence (prevalence = “p-hat”) Interpreting confidence (Note: Computational aspects will only be indirectly covered. You will not be asked to compute such a CI; however, knowing how to do so will likely help you in being able to address the other issues. You will need to know how to compute a required sample size.) Hypothesis test for a proportion (Section 7-3, Worksheet) State hypotheses in appropriate statistical notation Determine the value of a test statistic Determine the P-value Make an appropriate decision Express a conclusion in writing, in nontechnical terms Interpret the P-value Distribution of the sample mean (Section 6-5, Gettysburg Address, Worksheet) Contrast the distribution of the sample mean with the distribution of the (single) observations. What’s the same? (One thing.) What’s different? (Two things.) Distribution of the sample mean when the data (single observations) are Normally distributed – for any sample size. What the Central Limit Theorem says about nonNormal data. Confidence Interval for a mean (Section 7-4, Worksheet) Hypothesis Test for a mean (Section 8-5, Worksheet) December 1 Read Section 8-5. Some of the guidelines for using a t test are back in Section 7-4. Read the November 24 entry on this. Practice Exercises Section 8-5 page 431: 5 – 19 odd, 25. November 24 Confidence interval for a mean. Read Section 7-4. · Ignore the “Yes” branch of the flowchart on page 534. · Ignore the first row “Use normal…” of the table on page 355. Do read the “Notes to the Table.” · We aren’t covering the “s (population standard deviation) known” situation (Section 7-3) because this situation never occurs in real stats applications (it occurs only in textbooks). Practice
Exercises Section 7-4 page 359: 1, 3, 13, 15, 17, 21. November 21 Introduction to T distributions. November 19 Quiz: Section 6-5 and the Worksheet/Exercises. To be on Friday. Bring Table A-3 (Appendix A; back of book; on the pullout section) on Friday and next Monday. November 17 Section 6-5. Practice Exercises page 287 1, 5, 7ab, 9-19 odd Practice Exercises Sample Mean Worksheet November 14 Sampling Words The
What did we learn? · Means from random samples are an unbiased estimate of the population mean. o Other nonrandom sampling plans may be biased. · Sample means vary less than individual observations. · Sample means have closer to Normal distribution than do individual observations. November 12 Practice Exercises page 403 (Use the “P-value method” for the practice exercises) · Section 8-2 page 403 : 31, 35 · Section 8-3 page 414 : 3, 5, 9, 11, 13, 19, 23 November 10 Hypothesis testing · From the start of 8-2 through the middle of page 398. Figure 8-8 is our template. · The P-Value Method flow chart (Figure 8-8) on the left of page 401. · Section 8-3 where the P-value method is used. (You may ignore the parts that cover other methods.) Practice Exercises page 403: 4, 9, 10, 13, 14, 25, 27, 29, 33 Assignment handed out: Due Friday November 7 We will cover Section 8-2 and 8-3 for the next week. Midterm summaries are posted on ANGEL. November 5 The book suggests a proper interpretation of the interval (top of page 323), and explains what is meant by confidence (middle 323 and Figure 7.1) but does not ask about these in exercises. I do ask in Exercise Set 2, and I expect you to have a good appreciation for the factors that impact on the size of the error margin. Practice Exercises, Exercise Set #2: 7 – 15. (See the Files page. The exercises begin on page 20 of the “Confidence Interval for a Proportion” document.) November 3 My office hours today are cancelled. Additional hours: Tomorrow from 1 – 2. Wednesday from 1:45 – 2:45. Confidence Interval for a Proportion p: Sample size determination. Read Chapter 7, Section 2 pages 328 – 330. Practice Exercises: 7-2 page 332: 25, 27, 41, 43. Practice Exercises Set #3: 1, 2 (part c – replace “while” with “which”), 3a, 4 (See the Files page. These exercises begin on page 26 or so of the “Confidence Interval for a Proportion” document.) October 31 Midterm 2. If – for whatever reason – you weren’t present for the exam: Arrive at my office (308 Snygg) by 12:35 on Monday, with a calculator, and ready to take the alternate exam. Coverage Assigned reading Continuous Distributions (Densities) Area under the curve Special Cases: Uniform,
Exponential, Probability Multiplication Rules, Complements, Sampling with (out) replacement Binomial Distribution Identify Binomial setting, n and p; Excel for probabilities; mean & standard deviation; interpret Confidence intervals for estimating a proportion (7-2) October 29 Here is the formula sheet for the 2nd midterm – Friday (Halloween) Assigned reading for Monday: Polls Apart: Why polls vary on [sic] presidential race Love, Sex and the Changing Landscape of Infidelity Sit in every other seat for the midterm. Do not sit in the back row. If illness or family matters force you to miss the exam: · Bring appropriate documentation with you when you return to class ready to take the exam. · You must check the course calendar for announcements. October 27 Read Chap 7, Sec 2, through the middle of page 328. Then read from the top of page 330 (“Common Errors”) through the end of the Example on page 331. Practice Exercises The exercise on the handout (solutions are provided) 7-2 page page 332: 3 – 23 odd, 29, 33a, 37, 39 October 24 Read 7-2 in the text. October 22 Assignment: Handed out. Due Friday. #3 should read as follows: Determine the
probability that at least 21 of deaths occur on the 3rd of the month. Binomial Distribution, Sections 5-3 and 5-4 Practice Exercises Handed Out · Exercise Set 1 · Exercise Set 2: 1a, 2b, 3c, 5 – 8. · Exercise Set 3 These sets are online, along with some notes. Excel Instructions
are also online. See the Files page. October 20 Assignment: Handed out. Due Friday. See the instructor for a copy. Follow instructions. Sections 5-3 amd 5-4. We will use Method 3 (Technology – in particular Excel) to compute probabilities. You are not responsible for Methods 1 and 2. Excel Instructions Brief version: page 230 Detailed version: Document posted online To be demonstrated in class Practice
Exercises: Binomial Distribution Section 5-3, page 220 : 2, 5-12, 25 – 28 Use Excel for these: 19, 23, 29, 31, 35 Section 5-4, page 220. 4, 5 – 19 odd, 20 October 17 Practice Problems: The exercise set is handed out. Solve 5, 6, 8 and 9. October 15 Practice Problems: The exercise set is handed out. Solve 1-3, 4a-d. (See the Files page for a these as well as some notes: More Probability.) October 13 Normal distributions (Section 6-3)
Quiz Wednesday. Reading: Section 4-2 (ignore the
“Odds” section if you wish), and Section 4-4 and the material on
complements from 4-5. Practice Exercises ·
Section
4-2: 1, 2, 3 – 15 odd. ·
Section
4-4 page 165: 5 – 13 odd. #11 is
particularly appropriate ·
Section
4-5 page 171: 1 – 7 odd, 17, 18, 19 #17-19
are particularly appropriate October 8 More on the Normal distributions. Plus a video. Math 158 Assignment For Wednesday 10/8/08 Come to class ready for a quiz on this, first thing Monday. Read “The Slippery Art of Polling,” by Sharon Begley, in the October 6, 2008 issue of Newsweek. Then reread it carefully. Write a list of reasons why polls might be skewed. Do pollsters generally adjust for the following? Gender Age Party Identification Why is Party ID surprisingly “fluid?” (What does “fluid” mean in this context?) Suppose on election day McCain wins. Does this mean that the October 8, 2008 poll having Obama leading with 55% (error margin ±3%) is incorrect? Explain. October 6 Normal distributions. Bring a copy
of both pages of Table A2 in the text (it’s found in the rip-out
section, or in the appendix, or in the back flap). Sections
6-2 and 6-3. Only 6-3 will be tested, as 6-3 requires 6-2. Practice
Exercises Section 6-2 page 257 1-27 odd, 29-44. Section
6-3 page 266: 1, 2, 5-23 odd, 27. Solutions to evens Note: Solutions were obtained
using software, which has more precision in handling Section 6-2. 30) 0.6827. 32)
0.9995. 34) 0.0500. 36) 0.0500. 38) -0.67. 40) -2.33 and +2.33. 42) a)
0.5774, b) 0.6827, c) quite different. 44) 51.00 and 0.58. Section 6-3. 2) 0 and 1. October 3 Exponential Distributions. Notes
and the Exercise Set for practice are handed out (see the Files page
for a copy). Exercises
4 – 7, 9 – 11, 13. October 1 Midterms returned. Uniform Distributions. Notes and
the Exercise Set for practice are handed out (see the Files page
for a copy). Exercises
1, 2, 3, 8, 12. September 29 Continuous Variables.
Today’s material falls along with reading from 6-1 and 6-2 through the
end of the “Class Length” example on page 249. Some notes from
today are posted online (see the Files
page for a copy) along with the
exercise set and solutions. Practice Exercises: Handed out. Problem
C: The vertical grid lines didn’t print well. Draw them in at every 2.5
cm increment. The horizontal grids are at every 0.005. (You also may download
the document (Files) and reprint it at full size.) September 26 Midterm 1. September 24 We went over the assignment and a
problem. September 22 Formula sheet (pdf) for the midterm
Friday Midterm 1 is Friday. Coverage is
through the assigned material on September 19 (see below). Exam guidelines The seats
on either side of you must be empty. Bring
your calculator. There is no assurance of extras. Check batteries beforehand. Phones
and other PEDs must be stowed and silent. If your
device makes a sound, you are done with the exam. If your
device is seen after the exam starts, you forfeit your exam. Emergencies:
Should a documentable emergency force you to miss the exam… …you
are expected to be prepared for the exam Monday during class, unless… …the
emergency is documented through the weekend, in which case you will be
granted a further exception. Main topics Percentiles Compute
them Interpret
them 5 #
summary / Range / IQR / Boxplots Histograms / dotplots Shapes of
distributions: Skew/Symmetry Mean & Standard deviation Compute
quickly Interpret (mean:
distance to all data above = distance to all below ; St dev = typical
deviation from mean) Range
rule of thumb Relations among Percentiles
/ Boxplots / IQR / Range Histograms
/ Shapes Mean
& Standard Deviation Probability distributions Probabilities
as long run relative frequencies Probabilities
as population relative frequencies Computing
the mean Computing
the standard deviation for a small table Using the
formula for a mean to quickly approximate the mean from a histogram using
midpoints and relative frequencies. September 19 Midterm 1 next Friday. Coverage
through today’s assigned material. The formula sheet will be available
online by Monday. Practice Exercises on the handout
(see the Files page for a copy – the exercise set is at
the end of the “Discrete Variables” document): Do 1 - 4, 6, 7. September 17 Read 5-2 through page 205. Practice Exercises 5-2: 1, 3, 5, 6 - 10. Solutions 6. c and e are continuous. 8. This is not a probability distribution. The probabilities sum to 0.977. 10. The mean is 4.0 and the standard deviation is 0.2. September 15 60 second quiz today. “Tying it Together” exercises 2, 4 and 8. See the Files page for a copy. Range Rule of Thumb Section 2-3, pages 98 - 99 Practice Exercises page 108: 29-32. We will start talking about Chapter 5 today. September 12 “Tying it Together” exercises were assigned Wednesday. I will discuss these during the first half of class Monday. See the Files page for a copy. 60 second quiz Monday. September 10 Quizzes were returned. The 60 second quiz: Determine and
write down the mean and standard deviation of an n = 10 data set in under 60
seconds. Monday. Exercise set “Tying it Together.” Practice for Friday: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7. I will discuss most of these during the first half of class Monday. See the Files page for a copy. An assignment (Minitab) is
available (not posted online – see the instructor for a copy); it is
due Sep 17. September 8 Sections 3-1 through 3-3 are
assigned as reading. In 3-2
you may skip “Mean From a Frequency Distribution” and
“Weighted Mean.” We also will not be emphasizing the midrange and
the mode. In 3-3
you are responsible for pages 92 – 95 and 98 – top of 101. We
won’t be worrying at this stage about the distinction between sample
and population means nor standard deviations. We’ll just deal with
sample values. Practice Exercises ·
Section
3-2 page 86: 2, 3, 7, 9, 15, 19. ·
Section
3-3 page 104: 2, 7, 9, 15, 19, 29, 31 September 5 Discussion and worksheet with
Boxplots. Boxplots are described on pages 120 – 126. Practice
Exercises Page 131: 5 Page 127:
1-3, 5, 6 September 3 Quiz Friday 9/5 covering the
exercises on interpolation and percentiles. ·
Formulas
for interpolation and percentiles will be provided. ·
It
will be short, at the end of class. ·
Bring
your calculator. (No cell phones for this.) Our study of graphs will be brief. ·
Read Sections
2-2, 2-3, and the short part of 2-4 concerning dotplots. ·
Boxplots
are described on pages 120 - 126 ·
Terminology
on basic distribution shapes is at the bottom of page 85. ·
For notes and the presentation slides, see the
Files page. Practice
Exercises Section 2-3, pages 54 – 56: 5, 6, 7, 13, 17 August 29 Percentiles: Practice exercises handed out in class. For notes and the presentation slides, see the Files page. (The exercises are at the rear of the notes.) Quiz Friday Sep 5 on interpolation and percentiles. August 27
Take a look at this graph, produced from past data on Math 158. What does this tell you?
The syllabus is our contract. You must read it.
In the text… Take C-S to mean “Section S of Chapter C.” So, for instance, “Read 1-2” means “Read Chapter 1 Section 2.” (This is the numbering system used in the book.) Our coverage of Chapters 1, 2 and 3 will go by quickly.
Read 1-1 and 1-2 through the first paragraph on page 7.
Practice exercises on interpolation have been handed out in class. Class notes, as well as the exercises (which were handed out in class) are available from the Files page. Problems 6 – 10 are the important ones; especially 10. A quick assignment was handed out. It is due Friday. Here’s the link to Mapquest. http://www.mapquest.com/directions/main.adp?bCTsettings=1 |
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